United States rice production in 1999/2000 is projected at a record 207 million hundredweight, up nearly 10 percent from 1998/99. Planted area, based on the March Prospective Plantings report, is estimated at 3.58 million acres, up 7 percent from 1998, but down from the 1981 record of 3.81 million acres. Average all-rice yield, based on the recent Olympic five-year average by state and type of rice, is estimated at 5,831 pounds per acre.

Domestic and residual use is projected at a record of nearly 113 million hundredweight, up 2.6 percent from 1998/99. Exports are projected at 84 million hundredweight, down 1 million hundredweight from this month's revised 1998/99 estimate. Rough rice exports are projected at 15 million hundredweight, down considerably from the levels of the past two years, mostly because of a decline in import demand from Latin America, particularly from Brazil, and expected stiffer competition from Argentina and Uruguay.

A larger share of U.S. exports in 1999/2000 will be long-grain milled rice. Ending stocks are projected at nearly 51 million hundredweight, up over 20 million hundredweight from 1998/99 and the highest since 1986/87. Prices are projected to soften as a result of large domestic and global supplies and keen competition among the global exporters for limited import markets.

United States prices in 1999/2000 are projected to average between$6.00 and $7.00 per hundredweight, compared to $8.55 to $8.75 per hundredweight for 1998/99.

Global 1999/2000 rice production is projected at a record 389 million tons, assuming normal global weather. World consumption is projected at a record level, while global exports and stocks are projected nearly unchanged from 1998/99.